World trade and production are falling
According to the latest data from the Dutch Economic Analysis Office (CPB), which monitors world trade, the world trade volume dropped significantly (by 1.7% m / m) in February, a significant deterioration compared to January's 2.1% growth. Worldwide industrial production only saw a slight decrease of 0.2%.
Significant deterioration in world trade also occurred in the comparison of three-month averages. The trade volume in the three months to February fell by 1.9% compared to the previous three months, the steepest drop in the last 10 years. Emerging markets in East Asia and selected African and Middle East countries contributed most to the decline. By contrast, Eastern Europe and partly also Latin America and the euro area recorded growth.
The volume of industrial production in the three months to February decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous three months. Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and Europe more moderately contributed to the decline. In the year-on-year comparison of 3M averages, production increased, but the growth rate has been gradually decreasing since the beginning of 2018.
CPB World Trade Monitor (WTM) is a tool for collecting and aggregating worldwide monthly data on international trade and industrial production. Its goal is to report on the development of trade and production on a monthly basis as soon as possible and for as many states as possible. The monitor includes more than 80 states, which in 2005 still covered 97% of world industrial production and nearly 99% of world trade.
Source: CPB - Economic Policy Analysis, Bloomberg, Ministry of Industry and Trade (Czech Republic)