Boston Consulting Group presented a unique model of the Czech labour market development, which worked with the labour market forecasting system of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, local factors, 10 global megatrends and an analysis of 131 professions in 31 sectors.
Three main challenges for the Czech labour market are these: change in the structure of the labour market, ageing of the workforce and growth of the number of unfilled positions.
The structure of the labour market will change. By 2030, 1 million of the approximately 5 million economically active people will be in professions where a significant number of jobs are at risk of disappearing. Around 330 000 current employees will lose their jobs as a result and will have to retrain for other positions. The requirements for at least basic digital skills for workers will also increase dramatically. By 2030, the proportion of jobs requiring digital skills will rise from 54% today to 90%.<br/>
The workforce is getting older. By 2040, the number of people aged 50-65 will increase by 36%. If employment by age group remains constant, then GDP per capita in the Czech Republic will fall by 16% by 2050 due to population ageing and a decline in the workforce in the older age groups.
The number of unfilled positions will increase. The shortage of workers on the market will increase only slightly to 190 000 by 2030 compared to the current situation. However, due to the ageing population and retirement of strong year groups, the number of unfilled positions will grow further and could reach up to 400 000 in 2040.
"The labour market is facing fundamental changes that will present us with several challenges. Without timely intervention, the expected changes may slow down the growth of the Czech economy and living standards. In total, it could be more than 1.2 percentage points per year. At the current GDP trend, this means that in 2030 the economy's performance would be up to CZK 600 billion lower than if we were able to keep up with these changes. In this least favourable scenario, the cumulative loss in GDP between 2023 and 2030 would rise to CZK 2.2 trillion, which would also mean about CZK 700 billion less for public budgets." Jiří Švejcar of the Boston Consulting Group comments on the situation and adds: "The good news is that we still have time to prepare for the changes, which allows us to improve our economic performance. The state, companies and employees should take proactive steps."
This material was prepared by the employees of CzechTrade – Office Scandinavia.
Photo: Archive CzechTrade<br/>