GDP growth is set to pick up from 1 % in 2024 to 2.4 % in 2025 and 2.6 % in 2026. The recovery in real disposable incomes will support stronger consumer demand.
Investment
will be bolstered by easing financial conditions and the stronger use of EU
funds. The growth of exports will pick up, as demand from Czechia’s main
trading partners strengthens. Headline inflation is projected to remain around
the 2 % target, with core inflation gradually easing.
Risks are
tilted to the downside, related to geopolitical tensions and a more persistent
slowdown of growth in key trading partners, especially Germany. Trade wars may
hamper the investment appetite of the export-oriented industry next year. This
is especially so in those sectors that already face high uncertainty due to
rising global competition or higher energy prices.
Monetary
policy should remain restrictive until underlying inflation pressures subside.
Fiscal consolidation should continue in the medium term to rebuild fiscal
buffers and prepare for long-term spending pressures. Reforming the vocational
education and training (VET) system and expanding opportunities for reskilling
and upskilling are needed to reduce skill shortages and mismatches, and boost
productivity.
Source: OECD
Prepared by
the CzechTrade London team